Intuition vs. statistics

Posted by Marek Siwiec MEP on 07/11/12
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This morning Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski via twitter made a ‘political analysis’ of Barack Obama’s victory – ‘My intuition once again told me rightly that with the polls on a knife-edge the current President has an advantage’. It is a little embarrassing for the incumbent Minister of Foreign Affairs. Embarrassing – because it is shallow and false. It is enough just to look at the preliminary statistics to come to much more serious conclusions.

Obama’s victory is the result of deep civilization changes taking place in the United States. The President was in a vast majority supported by African Americans – 96%, and Hispanics – more than 70%. This latter population is growing rapidly, especially in the south-western states. Over the past years 3 of them have changed from Republican to Democratic. Of course, this trend will continue.

Also, the majority of women (55%) voted for Obama. As you can see, Romney’s conservative proposal – an American mother taking care of children as well as an anti-abortion program – has lost against the vision of modern, independent woman promoted by the Democrats.

And one more number – 60% of young people (up to 29 years old) have chosen the incumbent President.

Minister Sikorski should assimilate these numbers because they have decided on who would be ruling America for the next 4 years. I understand that it is not appropriate for him to say aloud for whom he crossed fingers. In politics, however, it happens that if you do not have what you like, then you have to like what you have.

And the intuition? Sometimes it loses against the statistics.

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Marek Siwiec MEP on Poland & Europe rss

Marek Siwiec, Polish Member of the European Parliament, writes about European Neighbourhood Policy, defence policy, Polish Presidency of the EU Council, Polish politics and other topics related to European and international affairs. more.



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