When everyone talks about truce, there exists a strong suspicion that each has got something else in mind – the idea behind it differs. Great authorities of worldwide politics such as UN Secretary General to begin with, US Secretary of State or finally the president of Egypt have already engaged into the conflict in the Middle East. And somehow they can’t make it.
While waiting for the truce to come, one cannot be too naive. By starting the military incursion Israel has taken a great risk. Both diplomatic and a physical one. It turned out that Hamas poses a threat to a great majority of citizens of the whole country and to its most important cities. It was also an occasion to demonstrate the effectiveness of its own missile defence system. From a diplomatic point of view, the whole world saw the excruciating image of Palestinian victims and Israeli tanks again.
To restore the situation from before the military actions is, therefore, out of the questions. Hamas must stop launching its missiles and it could happen if:
– a political will of peace with Israel occurred (I personally doubt this to happen)
– Hamas ran out of stockpiles
– an international guarantee for not restocking the arms and ammunition stocks was issued (difficult to maintain since the arm trafficking has its main source in Muslin-ruled Egypt)
So far, Hamas has not even agreed to have its arsenal verified. It has benefited from the military skirmish – it has shown its power and determination while its representatives, although not much recognized, are now sitting behind a negotiation table. In order to stop the gunfire, Hamas would have to get something from the international community in advance. So far, I have not heard of any offer.
There is still one more issue behind this matter. Israel was attacked by Iranian missiles which had been previously agreed by Iran. Therefore, we indeed witness the first step of the Iranian- Israeli conflict. President Simon Peres said in his yesterday’s speech in the USA that the conflict is a worldwide in character. Reading between the lines- there comes the time for the USA to look at its last outbreak in such a way.Author : Marek Siwiec MEP