Marek Siwiec MEP on Poland & Europe

Recent images of Kiev may be grounds for some optimism, however, they might be compared to one swallow which, as we know, does not make a summer. “Divisions” of the Right Sector left the building of the mayor’s office and the barricade at Hruszewskiego street won a hatch (or hole), through which there is a swinging traffic going on under a thorough supervision of the demonstrators.

Nevertheless, eyes of the observers are directed today at Berlin, where chancellor Merkel will be speaking with Yatseniuk and Klitschko. Before this visit a 4-hour conference of two leaders with Yulia Timoshenko was held. We do not know what was decided at the meeting, but we might be sure that there was at least one divergence. The former prime minister would not like to return to the constitution of 2004. Neither would the majority of the Party of the Regions.

What will then the Verkhovna Rada decide tomorrow?

The opposition does not have enough votes to reinstate the constitution. There is also not enough support to block the appointment of a new prime minister. What can thus happen tomorrow? The Party of the Regions is ready to choose a new prime minister out of them or appoint someone closely related. Five names are being mentioned.

One of the candidate is Deputy Prime Minister Arbuzov, who is, however, very unpopular in his own party. Another is Andriy Klyuyev, who on the other hand is popular in the party but he is also needed by the president as chief of the presidential chancellery. The former Prime Minister Yuriy Boyko whose political weakness is, ironically, his asset is another name on the list. If we were to search for more candidates, there is also former Prime Minister Anatol Kinach on the standby. Despite his links with the Party of the Regions, his position is much more independent. Another willing is Petro Poroshenko, former minister in Azarow’s government and now a rebel from Majdan. But in my point of view his chances are rather scarce. Appointing Poroshenko would, however, be a real give of a bit of power by the Party of the Regions, and it does not seem that Yanukovych team is ready for that.

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