Marek Siwiec MEP on Poland & Europe

In less than 50 days Ukraine will hold the parliamentary election. A few minor facts describe the landscape of this last stage.

The opposition has decided to submit a motion for the dismissal of President Yanukovych, accusing him of constantly violating the constitution. 500 thousands Ukrainians signed the petition. They have no chance to succeed they effectively added fuel to the fire of pre-election fight.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine works the observation mission of ODHIR (Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights), which records the irregularities of the ongoing campaign. Soon the sub-report will be published but so far there are no signs of any major violations of the electoral law.

The fact that has been completely unnoticed was the release of Valeriy Ivashchenko, a former Defence Minister in Tymoshenko government. The Kiev Court of Appeals has changed his sentence of 5 years in prison into 1-year suspension. It is a small step but in a good direction, though at the same time the cassation hearing of the former Prime Minister did not give any results.

The new EU ambassador to Ukraine Jan Tombinski will have a lot of work to do. Last Thursday he presented himself at the Foreign Affairs Committee of the European Parliament. It went well, also from the linguistic point of view. The ambassador begun fluently in German, to the satisfaction of the Germans and the consternation of the British. He handled French the best. About the knowledge of Russian and Ukrainian his biography did not say anything.

the EU Bureau decided to send the expanded delegation of 15 MEPs-observers to Ukraine. We will have a hard nut to crack because it is already known that the stake is not so much about who wins, but about the way of conducting the election. If it will be free and fair, there will be a chance to return to the discussion on the association with the EU. If not, than the gates of Kremlin will be widely open for Kiev.

And what if neither of these scenarios comes true? The head of the opposition is serving a sentence but her party is fighting in the election. It is not a painted opposition marked by the party in power. So the fight is serious and the Party of Regions has seriously mobilised a huge electorate. So, if there are no stated frauds and the Party of Regions wins, will the foreign observers have the courage to say that in general everything was okay?

Well, 50 days is enough to fix a lot but also enough to ruin everything.

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